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Is it Wise to Retain Federal Realty (FRT) Stock for Now?
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Increased consumer preference for in-person shopping experiences following the pandemic downtime has been driving the recovery of the retail real estate industry. Amid this, Federal Realty (FRT - Free Report) is well-poised to benefit from its portfolio of premium assets in the United States.
A diversified tenant base, a focus on essential retail and mixed-use assets, and the balance-sheet strength of the company augur well. However, high e-commerce adoption is likely to weigh on Federal Realty. Macroeconomic uncertainty and a high interest rate environment add to its woes.
This retail real estate investment trust’s (REIT) properties are located in the first-ring suburbs of the nine major metropolitan markets of the United States, mainly in the key coastal markets from Washington DC to Boston, MA, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Due to the strong demographics and infill nature of its properties, Federal Realty has been able to maintain a high occupancy level over the years. Occupancy rates in the portfolio increased 140 basis points (bps) year over year to 92.6% as of Mar 31, 2023.
With solid consumer spending and the rebound in the retail industry, the retail REIT is poised to benefit from its superior assets in premium locations and experience improving the leasing environment. We estimate the leased occupancy rate for 2023 to be 94.8%.
The company has a well-diversified tenant base of retailers, including TJX Companies, Kroger and CVS Corporation. This minimizes risks related to any particular retail industry and assures a stable source of rental revenues. For 2023, we estimate the company’s rental income to grow 3.9% year over year.
Federal Realty’s efforts to explore the mixed-use development option, which has gained immense popularity in recent years, will enable it to tap growth opportunities in areas where people prefer to live, work and play. Moreover, FRT’s expansion efforts into premium markets, and initiatives to redevelop and reposition its assets seem encouraging.
On the balance sheet front, Federal Realty exited first-quarter 2023 with $1.3 billion of total liquidity. The annualized net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 6.0 and the fixed charge coverage ratio was 3.6 as of Mar 31, 2023. Its investment-grade credit ratings render the company favorable access to the debt market. With a strong balance sheet, FRT is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.
Solid dividend payouts are arguably the biggest enticement for REIT shareholders and Federal Realty is committed to the same. Backed by healthy operating fundamentals, we expect funds from operations (FFO) to increase 4.7% in 2023. The company’s quarterly cash dividend of $1.08 per share is expected to be sustainable, given the company’s solid operating platform, FFO growth projections and balance sheet strength compared with industry counterparts.
Analysts seem bullish about this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2023 FFO per share has moved upward over the past three months to $6.49, indicating a favorable outlook for FRT.
Moreover, shares of Federal Realty have risen 6.4% over the past month, outperforming its industry's growth of 5.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, given the conveniences of online shopping, high e-commerce adoption is concerning for Federal Realty. Online retailing will remain a popular choice among customers, adversely impacting the market share for brick-and-mortar stores.
A slowdown in the economy and the depletion of savings can limit consumers’ willingness to spend to some extent in the coming quarters amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a high interest rate environment. The likelihood of tenant bankruptcies in the near term can affect the company’s profitability.
A high interest rate environment is concerning for Federal Realty. Elevated rates imply high borrowing costs for the company, affecting its ability to purchase or develop real estate. Our estimate for 2023 interest expenses suggests a year-over-year increase of 17.2%. The dividend payout may become less attractive than the yields on fixed-income and money-market accounts amid high interest rates.
Image: Bigstock
Is it Wise to Retain Federal Realty (FRT) Stock for Now?
Increased consumer preference for in-person shopping experiences following the pandemic downtime has been driving the recovery of the retail real estate industry. Amid this, Federal Realty (FRT - Free Report) is well-poised to benefit from its portfolio of premium assets in the United States.
A diversified tenant base, a focus on essential retail and mixed-use assets, and the balance-sheet strength of the company augur well. However, high e-commerce adoption is likely to weigh on Federal Realty. Macroeconomic uncertainty and a high interest rate environment add to its woes.
This retail real estate investment trust’s (REIT) properties are located in the first-ring suburbs of the nine major metropolitan markets of the United States, mainly in the key coastal markets from Washington DC to Boston, MA, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Due to the strong demographics and infill nature of its properties, Federal Realty has been able to maintain a high occupancy level over the years. Occupancy rates in the portfolio increased 140 basis points (bps) year over year to 92.6% as of Mar 31, 2023.
With solid consumer spending and the rebound in the retail industry, the retail REIT is poised to benefit from its superior assets in premium locations and experience improving the leasing environment. We estimate the leased occupancy rate for 2023 to be 94.8%.
The company has a well-diversified tenant base of retailers, including TJX Companies, Kroger and CVS Corporation. This minimizes risks related to any particular retail industry and assures a stable source of rental revenues. For 2023, we estimate the company’s rental income to grow 3.9% year over year.
Federal Realty’s efforts to explore the mixed-use development option, which has gained immense popularity in recent years, will enable it to tap growth opportunities in areas where people prefer to live, work and play. Moreover, FRT’s expansion efforts into premium markets, and initiatives to redevelop and reposition its assets seem encouraging.
On the balance sheet front, Federal Realty exited first-quarter 2023 with $1.3 billion of total liquidity. The annualized net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 6.0 and the fixed charge coverage ratio was 3.6 as of Mar 31, 2023. Its investment-grade credit ratings render the company favorable access to the debt market. With a strong balance sheet, FRT is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.
Solid dividend payouts are arguably the biggest enticement for REIT shareholders and Federal Realty is committed to the same. Backed by healthy operating fundamentals, we expect funds from operations (FFO) to increase 4.7% in 2023. The company’s quarterly cash dividend of $1.08 per share is expected to be sustainable, given the company’s solid operating platform, FFO growth projections and balance sheet strength compared with industry counterparts.
Analysts seem bullish about this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2023 FFO per share has moved upward over the past three months to $6.49, indicating a favorable outlook for FRT.
Moreover, shares of Federal Realty have risen 6.4% over the past month, outperforming its industry's growth of 5.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, given the conveniences of online shopping, high e-commerce adoption is concerning for Federal Realty. Online retailing will remain a popular choice among customers, adversely impacting the market share for brick-and-mortar stores.
A slowdown in the economy and the depletion of savings can limit consumers’ willingness to spend to some extent in the coming quarters amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a high interest rate environment. The likelihood of tenant bankruptcies in the near term can affect the company’s profitability.
A high interest rate environment is concerning for Federal Realty. Elevated rates imply high borrowing costs for the company, affecting its ability to purchase or develop real estate. Our estimate for 2023 interest expenses suggests a year-over-year increase of 17.2%. The dividend payout may become less attractive than the yields on fixed-income and money-market accounts amid high interest rates.
Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked stocks from the retail REIT sector are Acadia Realty Trust (AKR - Free Report) and Saul Centers (BFS - Free Report) , carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Realty Trust’s 2023 FFO per share has been revised marginally north over the past two months to $1.23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Saul Centers’ 2023 FFO per share has been revised 1.3% north over the past month to $3.05.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents FFO — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.